Leading Economic Indicators & Reports For Accurate Market Forecasts
For Institutions, Private Investors And Traders
RecessionALERT equips subscribers with advanced economic indicators, US market commentary & macro-economic reports to inform on the risks & probability of a U.S recession. This is coupled with U.S stock market allocation and market-timing models to help investors make informed and accurate market forecasts. All of this is accessed through various weekly and monthly PDF reports, as well as heads-up-displays accessed on the RecessionALERT Portal.
Our Economic Research & Stock Market Models are trusted by top Global & US Investment Firms
Alerts and Daily updated charts for all models
- All models are backed by research papers archived in our RESEARCH CENTRE. Download historical data for all models, available for back-testing.
- Four Skype/Zoom sessions with our team to train and/or explain all aspects of our models and tailor your experience to your specific investment style & risk profile.
- Our daily updated ALERTS CENTRE categorizes critical alerts into SP500, Macro-Economic, Website changes & ETF’s to ensure you never miss anything.
- Our REPORTS CENTRE archives all PDF published reports into categories for Leading US Indices, US Housing & Labor Markets, Stock market health & Global Economy
- Our research also extends to offer institutional-grade insights for Bitcoin as well as analysis relating to the allocation of funds in a safe & effective manner.
Macro-economic models
Used by investors to gauge short, medium, & long-term US & Global economic and recession risk as well as to gauge health of major economic sectors.
- Weekly US Leading Economic Index
- Monthly Leading and Long-Leading US Economic Indices
- US Leading Housing and Labor market Indices
- Global Leading Indices & Global Economic Report
- Multifactor US Recession Probability Models
- High Frequency Post-Covid US Economic Recovery Tracker
- Macro-builder to build your own models using our data
U.S Stock Market Models
Used by investors & traders to optimize their stock market risk-adjusted returns and exposure and to provide reduced risk entries and exits.
- SP500 & ETF Market top/bottom Probability Models
- US Composite Stock market Health Report
- US Stock Market Valuation & Price Forecast Model
- SP500 Seasonality Timing Model
- Trendex multi-horizon trailing stop model for SP500
- SP500 OPTIMUM Market Timing Models
- Lowry's BUY-THE-DIP model (based on Desmond Lowry research)
- Modified Martin Zweig BUY-THE-DIP model
- Major market top model (BIGTOP)
Research
Where Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Market Timing Converge.
Our research goes beyond traditional economic analysis — delivering advance warning for investors navigating an increasingly complex global landscape. Our macroeconomic work spans recession forecasting models, leading and coincident indicator analysis, growth divergences across 41 economies, and the evolving reliability of traditional leading economic frameworks in a structurally altered world. On the geopolitical front, we map the fragilities of globalisation exposed by military conflict to cascading effects on energy markets, critical minerals, and economies. Our market timing tools arm subscribers with quantitative, rules-based models on the long, medium and short-term horizon and back-tested buy-the-dip and market top detection frameworks. Uniquely, we also provide decades worth of detailed historical data for all our models as Excel downloads for customers’ own back-testing or incorporation into their own investment and trading models.
DASHBOARD Overview
The Dashboard is the first port-of-call one-stop “at-a-glance” overview of all the most important information from our market timing & buy-the-dip models to our economic & valuation models.
- SP500 Trend following model overview.
- Consolidated views of our 8 buy-the-dip models.
- Daily updated risk from our Valuation Model (RAVI)
- Economic gauges (shown on right.)
- Consolidated recession probabilities from 15 models.
- Recession Forecast Diffusion of 15 recession models.
REPORTS Centre
There are 15 separate reports available as downloadable PDF files, grouped into 8 categories for ease of reference. The main tab is a chronological archive to simply view the latest reports as they are published. Publication alerts are sent via e-mail, and all report archives go back 5 years via a scrollbar.
ALERTS Dashboard
Alerts are issued daily as economic models reach defined thresholds or stock market risk/opportunities are identified or new models or improvements are added to the website:
- Alerts are grouped for ease of reference.
- Alerts archive has 12 months history for each category
- Alerts displayed with importance tags to help you prioritize
- Market top & bottom probability alerts issued for SP500, QQQ, IWM, GLD, EFA, EEM, VTI, IJH and AGG ETF's
- Critical alerts can be configured to be transmitted via email
Institutional Cryptocurrency Report
A relatively new field that brings the robustness of traditional market macroeconomic analysis to the crypto sphere. Used by high net-worth investors, family offices, company treasurers and fund managers with exposure to Bitcoin to manage macro-level cyclical crypto market risk and optimize their entries/exits. A variety of off-chain and on-chain data is deployed to produce charts & models for Cyclical & Seasonal analysis, Supply/Demand dynamics, Valuation models, Probability models for tops/bottoms, on-chain accumulation buy/sell models and technical analysis.
Market Intelligence Brief (MIB)
A daily report built for serious investors who can’t afford to miss what matters but don’t have time to read everything. Published every weekday by 6:00 PM EST, its rigorous curation process scores and ranks thousands of financial stories down to 15–20 with demonstrable impact on US equities, yields, credit, and macro. Every story explains not just what happened, but why it matters and what to watch next. It opens with an Executive Summary that goes beyond recap — it reasons through the day, connecting market data, macro signals, and news events into a coherent picture of what today actually means for your portfolio. Seven structured sections cover the full investment landscape: macro, policy, sector rotation, earnings, economic indicators, and the week ahead. Every story carries a sentiment rating — Bullish, Bearish, or Uncertain — so market mood is visible at a glance. For active investors, analysts, and family offices, MIB replaces hours of morning reading with one authoritative daily document. It is not a summary of what happened — it is an intelligence brief on what it means for your portfolio.
Choose Your Subscription Plan
Join RecessionALERT and get full access to all our models, charts, PDF reports, dashboards, research and emailed commentary.
NEW OR PRIOR CLIENTS ONLY
EASTER SPECIAL
Opportunity to discover our services. Includes access to all features of PRO subscription, at a 65-70% discount.
1.) In the spirit of discovery, discounts are NOT applicable to existing or prior clients within the last one year.
2.) Standard annual rates apply after expiry of subscription (you can cancel before renewal.)
3.) EXPIRES 30 APRIL,
UNITS LEFT : 12 out of 20
BASIC Subscription
For private investors only.
Single private individual for personal, non-commercial, non-company, non-family office use.
Includes access to PDF reports of all 14 weekly & monthly U.S econometric models, monthly Global Economic Report, SP500 market-timing models & related charts, tier-1 market breadth models, economic dashboards, emailed commentary, end-of-day chart updates and access to the ALERTS centre.
Also 1 x 1-hour ZOOM consultation.
PRO Subscription
For private/professional investors, asset managers & institutions
BASIC subscription PLUS following:
1. Excel history of all data & models;
2. Emailed alerts & exclusive research;
3. MacroBuilder to use historic data to build own custom macro-indices/models;
4. Gen-2 advanced probability models;
5. OPTIMUM market-timing models;
6. Intraday model+chart updates;
7. Advanced Market Breadth charts
8. Daily Market Intelligence Brief (MIB)
Also 3 x 1-hour ZOOM consultations
Includes Institutional Bitcoin Models
Our Economic Research & Stock Market Models are trusted by top Global & US Investment Firms
About RecessionALERT
Founded by Dwaine van Vuuren
Our first macroeconomic models on the US were developed for our own investment purposes. Around 2011, the general consensus on the internet and investment sites was that the US was falling into recession, contrary to what our models were showing us. We released the positive diagnosis of the US economy on Dashofinsight and Advisor Perpectives and received hundreds of requests to keep people appraised of the model on a weekly basis. After the model (which was by now named the SuperIndex) proved to correctly diagnose the US economy (or lack of a recession) people were requesting a subscription to continue getting the report on a regular weekly basis, and that is how RecessionALERT was born. Since those days many new models have been researched and developed by our team and we service hundreds of private investors, traders, family offices and institutions mainly based in the USA and Canada.
