Leading Economic Indicators & Reports For Accurate Market Forecasts
For Institutions, Private Investors And Traders
RecessionALERT equips subscribers with advanced economic indicators, US market commentary & macro-economic reports to inform on the risks & probability of a U.S recession. This is coupled with U.S stock market allocation and market-timing models to help investors make informed and accurate market forecasts. All of this is accessed through various weekly and monthly PDF reports, as well as heads-up-displays accessed on the RecessionALERT Portal.
Our Economic Research & Stock Market Models are trusted by top Global & US Investment Firms
Alerts and Daily updated charts for all models
- All models are backed by research papers archived in our RESEARCH CENTRE. Download historical data for all models, available for back-testing.
- Four Skype/Zoom sessions with our team to train and/or explain all aspects of our models and tailor your experience to your specific investment style & risk profile.
- Our daily updated ALERTS CENTRE categorizes critical alerts into SP500, Macro-Economic, Website changes & ETF’s to ensure you never miss anything.
- Our REPORTS CENTRE archives all PDF published reports into categories for Leading US Indices, US Housing & Labor Markets, Stock market health & Global Economy
- Our research also extends to offer institutional-grade insights for Bitcoin as well as analysis relating to the allocation of funds in a safe & effective manner.
Macro-economic models
Used by investors to gauge short, medium, & long-term US & Global economic and recession risk as well as to gauge health of major economic sectors.
- Weekly US Leading Economic Index
- Monthly Leading and Long-Leading US Economic Indices
- US Leading Housing and Labor market Indices
- Global Leading Indices & Global Economic Report
- Multifactor US Recession Probability Models
- High Frequency Post-Covid US Economic Recovery Tracker
- Macro-builder to build your own models using our data
U.S Stock Market Models
Used by investors & traders to optimize their stock market risk-adjusted returns and exposure and to provide reduced risk entries and exits.
- SP500 & ETF Market top/bottom Probability Models
- US Composite Stock market Health Report
- US Stock Market Valuation & Price Forecast Model
- 12-factor Composite SP500 Market Signaling Model
- SP500 Seasonality Timing Model
- Trendex multi-horizon trailing stop model for SP500
- SP500 OPTIMUM Market Timing Models
Quantitative Research
All of our quantitative models are the fruits of our own extensive research and development. Most client-facing models have access to the detailed research notes, theory, papers and actuarial tables as we believe clients are likely to be more successful with models if they understand them. All our new models have their data updated daily and outputs published for clients in a work-bench area for a year of out-of-sample testing before moving to the live environment. Many of our clients tell us that we are unique in that we also provide decades worth of detailed historical data for all our models as Excel downloads for customers’ own back-testing or incorporation into their own investment and trading models.
DASHBOARD Overview
The Dashboard is the first port-of-call one-stop “at-a-glance” overview of all the most important information from our market timing & buy-the-dip models to our economic & valuation models.
- SP500 Trend following model overview.
- Consolidated views of our 8 buy-the-dip models.
- Daily updated risk from our Valuation Model (RAVI)
- Economic gauges (shown on right.)
- Consolidated recession probabilities from 15 models.
- Recession Forecast Diffusion of 15 recession models.
REPORTS Centre
There are 15 separate reports available as downloadable PDF files, grouped into 8 categories for ease of reference. The main tab is a chronological archive to simply view the latest reports as they are published. Publication alerts are sent via e-mail, and all report archives go back 5 years via a scrollbar.
ALERTS Dashboard
Alerts are issued daily as economic models reach defined thresholds or stock market risk/opportunities are identified or new models or improvements are added to the website:
- Alerts are grouped for ease of reference.
- Alerts archive has 12 months history for each category
- Alerts displayed with importance tags to help you prioritize
- Market top & bottom probability alerts issued for SP500, QQQ, IWM, GLD, EFA, EEM, VTI, IJH and AGG ETF's
- Critical alerts can be configured to be transmitted via email
Institutional Cryptocurrency Report
A relatively new field that brings the robustness of traditional market macroeconomic analysis to the crypto sphere. Used by high net-worth investors, family offices, company treasurers and fund managers with exposure to Bitcoin to manage macro-level cyclical crypto market risk and optimize their entries/exits. A variety of off-chain and on-chain data is deployed to produce charts & models for Cyclical & Seasonal analysis, Supply/Demand dynamics, Valuation models, Probability models for tops/bottoms, on-chain accumulation buy/sell models and technical analysis.
Choose Your Subscription Plan
Join RecessionALERT and get full access to all our models, charts, PDF reports, dashboards, research and emailed commentary.
NEW OR PRIOR CLIENTS ONLY
BLACK FRIDAY SPECIAL
Opportunity to discover our services. Includes access to all features of PRO subscription, at up to 33% discount PLUS you get two extra years FREE . That’s an effective 78% discount & only $13/month for 36 months. This & 2 other discount options are below:
1.) In the spirit of discovery, discounts are NOT applicable to existing or prior clients within the last one year.
2.) Standard annual rates apply after expiry of subscription (you can cancel before renewal.)
3.) Offer limited to 25 units and EXPIRES Tue 03 December 2024
UNITS LEFT : 7 out of 25
BASIC Subscription
For private investors only.
Single individual for personal, non-professional, private non-commercial use.
Includes access to PDF reports of all 14 weekly & monthly leading U.S econometric models. Includes monthly Global Economic Report. Includes SP500 market-timing models & related charts, tier-1 market breadth models.
Includes economic dashboards, emailed commentary, end-of-day chart updates and access to the ALERTS centre.
Also 1 x 1-hour ZOOM consultation.
PRO Subscription
For private investors, professional individuals, asset managers, institutions & corporations
BASIC subscription PLUS following:
1. Excel history of all data & models;
2. Emailed alerts & exclusive research;
3. QQQ & Bitcoin probability based market-timing models;
4. MacroBuilder to use historic data to build own custom macro-indices/models;
5. Gen-2 advanced probability models;
6. OPTIMUM market-timing models;
7. Intraday model+chart updates;
8. Advanced Market Breadth charts
Also 3 x 1-hour ZOOM consultations
Includes Institutional Bitcoin Models
Our Economic Research & Stock Market Models are trusted by top Global & US Investment Firms
About RecessionALERT
Founded by Dwaine van Vuuren
Our first macroeconomic models on the US were developed for our own investment purposes. Around 2011, the general consensus on the internet and investment sites was that the US was falling into recession, contrary to what our models were showing us. We released the positive diagnosis of the US economy on Dashofinsight and Advisor Perpectives and received hundreds of requests to keep people appraised of the model on a weekly basis. After the model (which was by now named the SuperIndex) proved to correctly diagnose the US economy (or lack of a recession) people were requesting a subscription to continue getting the report on a regular weekly basis, and that is how RecessionALERT was born. Since those days many new models have been researched and developed by our team and we service hundreds of private investors, traders, family offices and institutions mainly based in the USA and Canada.
